Sea Kayak Specialists Blog

Sitting in the bunkhouse at the CPR Slip on northwestern lake Superior, I listened intently to the forecast. I didn’t expect to make it here yesterday. Thunderstorms were forecasted and then disappeared from the forecast. The 25 knot headwinds, despite my mutterings, stayed. I worked hard to get here knowing there were buildings, a protected location and a place to pull out (the photo shows what the area’s shoreline is like). It paid off. Despite yesterdays forecast, today was not a day to be paddling. Wind rattled the building and didn’t match the forecast. Eventually by 7am the buoys on the lake told of a gale (winds over 35 knots) blowing. By 11am the forecast changed, it now called for a gale.

Everywhere I have paddled, the weather forecast includes current conditions for both land stations and buoys. As a paddler, listening to the current reports gives me information – whats the winds and wave heights currently? What are they to the west of my location? Do they match the forecast? In the case of sitting at the CPR Slip, I didn’t need to consider going out and even check on conditions. The buoys told me to stay put.

Click here for NOAA’s website with this information from sites all around the world. Click here for sites on Lakes Superior & Michigan.

Like a forecast, I usually don’t do a paddle without first checking the buoy reports. Over time and in many different places, I have found these reports to be accurate. Land stations can be more problematic. For example the USCG Station in Marquette is in a protected location, so the wind report has not been accurate. However, some unique sites like Stannard Rock and Rock of Ages are both lighthouses literally built on rocks in the lake. Their reports usually represent current conditions.

The gale at the CPR Slip appeared to blow itself out by 2pm that day. Local winds dropped and the clouds indicated the storm was clearing out. Thanks to buoy reports, I also knew conditions on the open lake were settling. It made the decision to launch and cover 10 miles easier despite a forecast for the gale to continue.

sam

On a rugged & remote coastline, receiving a current forecast is not guaranteed. But if a forecast is one of the primary safety items, what does one do, not paddle? There have been occasions like this for me. It can be scary sitting on the west coast of Ireland or Moresby Island in Haida Gwaii/Queen Charlottes, places where the sea’s reputation require caution and a forecast.

More common though is an inaccurate forecast, one that as soon as you receive it, you know it is wrong. I have received these everywhere, from an afternoon paddle in Marquette to many an overnight trip

Observation skills provide a chance to not only check the accuracy of a forecast, but to make a forecast in the absence of one. Here are some photos, they are thumbs so you can click on them to see a larger version.

The clouds in these photos taken over several days tell about the storm.

Seeing those clouds descending in the first photo, shows the forecast for a storm was accurate and it was going to last a bit. When clouds descend over 12+ hours like this, it is a sign of a low pressure system, a system that generally brings stormy weather that can last days.

The middle two photos shows the progress of the storm. The second one in addition to the clouds, shows the rain, a sign of a front passing. The third one is when the storm is at its peak, note how low the clouds sit.

The fourth one shows the storm moving on as the clouds have started to lift. Note the surf.

A more threatening situation is a strong & fast changing wind called a squall line. Check out the thumb below:

This photo was taken in the Rossport Islands on northwest Lake Superior. Note the presence of blue sky and several different clouds layers. The dark bottomed clouds just starting to pass over us brought winds that gusted 30+ knots for 20+ minutes. After the line passed, the previous conditions returned with winds around 10-15 knots. These are some of the most dangerous conditions to encounter, primarily because how fast the winds increase and how strong they can become. We saw it coming 10+ minutes before the winds struck and tucked into the protection of the shore to wait it out. These squall lines can strike anytime there is a strong, unstable weather pattern, most commonly around thunderstorms.

The photo was taken in october. Original plan was to make the 6 mile crossing out to the nearby Slate Islands. Given the instability of the forecast (it changed every 6-12 hours) and the strength of the winds, we alternated to the closer and more protected Rossport Islands.

Finally, check out this thumb:

These were the last clouds of the system that the first four thumbs showed coming in, four days prior. Note the cumulus (cauliflower like) clouds to the west. I kept my eyes on these clouds for quite a while. They can develop into a thunderstorm. In addition to the lightning, the high winds associated with thunderstorms are also a danger. After a while, their threat receded, they neither built (grew taller & wider) nor did more cumulus appear in the afternoon. Both developments that would cause me to become more cautious.

On Isle Royale, I watched a thunderstorm build over Thunder Bay during the afternoon. The sky overhead stayed clear. After dinner around 7 or 8pm I sat watching the lightning and the towering cumulus 20-50 miles away. This is the scene in the first thumb below.

I watched some clouds come off of the thunderstorm and head straight towards my camp – a squall line! This is the scene in the blurry second thumb below. It covered 20 miles in under 30 minutes. Winds gusted to 35 knots for 20-30 minutes before the rest of the thunderstorm caught up. It rained steadily for the next couple of hours with 10-15 knot winds. By the next morning the storm had moved on leaving behind calm conditions.

Observational skills come with study (click here for references) and time spent on weather observation. Having a forecast is a critical safety item. Having the ability to observe the weather and make simple predictions adds to safety.

sam

For years I read or should say, tried to read books to get a greater understanding of the weather. But what I found was a topic prone to a lot of theory. This means it is tough to understand how to apply it when sitting in a sea kayak. Here are three references I use because they are practical and are written for the general public, not a meteorologist. All have increased my observation skills and in turn, increased my forecasting skills.

The Weather Handbook by Alan Watts

A book with theory alongside practical information. Most of the practical information is placed in the context of how it fits in with the theory. There is a lot of information included that I have not seen elsewhere and it has helped to develop my weather forecasting skills. The author is a former British meteorologist who honed his practical weather knowledge to improve his sailboat racing.

Wind, Weather and Waves by Environment Canada

A practical guide to weather in the Great Lakes with great pictures and very good information. There is information specific to the Great Lakes that helps to explain some weather patterns that are rarely seen elsewhere. But much of the information is applicable to any place near a large body of water.

Instant Weather Forecasting by Alan Watts

A guidebook that provides information on what the clouds currently tell you and what the future may bring. Mostly pictures with a reasonable amount of text describing the situation. Even more practical than what is found in The Weather Handbook which is a great companion for the associated weather theory.

A word of warning, some of these books maybe out of print. Best to scoop them up!

sam

Launched mid morning thursday to beat the forecast’s increasing winds. The catch was, the winds had already increased. In addition, the cloud cover matched what was forecasted for later too. Conditions tell you about the forecast. In this case, the forecast was accurate but it was off time wise. In this case the storm forecasted to arrive this evening, could be expected sooner.

Weather forecasts are predictions of current & future weather. Every paddler needs to check the forecast before launching. But everyone complains about weather forecasts as being wrong so does one ignore forecasts?

Only at your own peril. There is the story of the two paddlers in a double at Pictured Rocks. They paddled into a major storm that was predicted several days ahead of time and were trapped by the rapid change in conditions. They were plucked off the cliffs by a US Coast Guard helicopter. I know a guide who had a group on the water during this time. No rescues needed there, he knew the forecast and stayed in a safe place.

A forecast is more than air temps, chance of rain, wind speed, wave height, etc., there is additional information. There are trends to expect – are the winds speeding up or slowing down, are they changing direction, etc. There is timing – when is the wind changing?

This morning I knew from the wind & cloud cover, the storm was arriving early. The rain started at 4pm instead of the forecasted 7pm. Can a paddler use this? You bet. Do you push on or hold up? Setup camp now to be ready for a storm arriving early, or push on to cover additional miles with a later arriving storm.

Having a forecast can help prevent a helicopter ride. Reading between the lines can help adjust paddling plans to any unforecasted weather changes.

sam